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2020 Primary Analysis: 23rd Congressional District

The 23rd Congressional District falls within the boundaries of Los Angeles County, Kern County, and Tulare County. Kevin McCarthy (R) is the incumbent and is currently the House Minority Leader. Much like high profile Democrats, McCarthy typically gains a few opponents to run against him.

This district shows the following party registration for the three largest political groups (the source is http://www.l2political.com):

Republican- 40.4%
Democrat- 29.3%
NPP- 23.4%

McCarthy easily won in June of 2018. Here is a look at the primary election results from 2018:

Wendy Reed (D)- 10.1%
Tatiana Matta (D)- 12.6%
Kurtis Wilson (D)- 1.4%
Mary Helen Barro (D)- 5.4%
Kevin McCarthy (R)- 68.8%

If you calculate the totals from this election, you will see that 116,596 ballots were cast. We also saw 68.8% of voters cast a ballot for a Republican and 31.2% of voters cast a vote for a Democrat.

2020 appears to be looking the same for McCarthy but with only one challenger in the primary. Here are the results from the March 3 2020 election:

Kim Mangone (D)- 33.0%
Kevin McCarthy (R)- 67.0%

For this election, we saw 150,807 voters turnout and cast a ballot in this race. The large increase of voters in 2020 as compared to 2018 could be attributed to the fact that this was a Presidential Primary and we also were voting on Super Tuesday in California. The 2020 primary results were virtually the same as the 2018 primary.

Per the jungle primary rule in California, we will now see a November faceoff between Kim Mangone (D) and Kevin McCarthy (R). Mangone is a USAF Veteran and single mom who does not hold a current political office. McCarthy is the incumbent and the House Minority Leader.

The primary election results and the registration for the district make this one an easy call. I predict that Kevin McCarthy is going to win re-election.

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