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2020 Primary Analysis: 28th Congressional District

The 28th Congressional District falls entirely within the boundaries of Los Angeles County. Adam Schiff (D) is the incumbent and has held the seat since 2012.

This district shows the following party registration for the three largest political groups (the source is http://www.l2political.com):

Republican- 16.7%
Democrat- 50.0%
NPP- 28.0%

We had a familiar face running back in 2018 for this seat. Johnny Nalbandian who we wrote about earlier in our CD 27 analysis (he advances to November vs. Judy Chu) ran and advanced to November against Schiff. Here are the 2018 primary results:

Adam Schiff (D)- 73.5%
Sal Genovese (D)- 5.8%
Johnny Nalbandian (R)- 20.7%

If you calculate the totals from this election, you will see that 128,221 ballots were cast. 79.3% of ballots were cast for a Democrat and 20.7% of ballots were cast for a Republican.

Probably because Adam Schiff has become a higher profile Democrat, a crowded field filed to run against him in the primary. Here are the results from the March 3 2020 election:

Chad Anderson (D)- 1.3%
Sal Genovese (D)- 3.3%
Ara Khachig Manoogian (D)- 1.8%
G. “Maebe A. Girl” Pudlo (D)- 11.6%
Adam Schiff (D)- 59.7%
William Bodell (R)- 4.0%
Eric Early (R)- 12.8%
Jennifer Barbosa (NPP)- 5.6%

For this election, we saw 168,375 voters turnout and cast a ballot in this race. 77.7% of voters cast a ballot for a Democrat and 16.8% of voters cast a ballot for a Republican. Republicans almost got locked out of this race due to the jungle primary rules. G. “Maebe A. Girl” Pudlo finished just 1.2% behind second place finisher Eric Early.

Per the jungle primary rule in California, we will now see a November faceoff between Adam Schiff (D) and Eric Early (R). Schiff is the incumbent member of the US House of Representatives. Early is an attorney who was a candidate for Attorney General in 2018 against Xavier Becerra.

The primary numbers and party affiliation in this race are making this another easy call. I predict that Adam Schiff is going to win re-election.

1 reply »

  1. Chris I believe you are 100% correct about Mr. Schiff winning re-election. But given his actions over the last two years, including being a 100% proven liar, it is a sad commentary on the voters in that District and their collective decision to send him back to Congress for another term.

    Like

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