2020 Primary Analysis: 30th Congressional District

The 30th Congressional District falls within the boundaries of Los Angeles County and Ventura County. Brad Sherman (D) is the incumbent and has held the seat since 2012.

This district shows the following party registration for the three largest political groups (the source is http://www.l2political.com):

Republican- 19.4%
Democrat- 49.2%
NPP- 25.9%

This is yet another district that has fewer Republicans than NPP voters. Here are the 2018 primary results:

Brad Sherman (D)- 62.3%
Raji Rab (D)- 5.3%
Jon Pelzer (D)- 5.2%
Mark Reed (R)- 27.3%

If you calculate the totals from this election, you will see that 128,479 ballots were cast. 72.8% of ballots were cast for a Democrat and 27.3% of ballots were cast for a Republican.

In spite of the low number of Republican voters, we saw a decent showing in comparison to registration by Mark Reed to advance to November in 2018. Mark Reed ran again in 2020 in did not quite have as strong of a showing. Here are the results from the March 3 2020 election:

Courtney Berina (D)- 10.7%
Brian Carroll (D)- 3.5%
Raji Rab (D)- 4.5%
Brad Sherman (D)- 58.2%
Mark Reed (R)- 23.1%

For this election, we saw 156,907 voters turnout and cast a ballot in this race. 76.4% of voters cast a ballot for a Democrat and 23.1% of voters cast a ballot for a Republican.

Per the jungle primary rule in California, we will now see a November faceoff between Brad Sherman (D) and Mark Reed (R). Sherman is the incumbent member of the US House of Representatives. Reed as an actor and businessman who has run for office before.

The registration gap and similarity in results to 2018 make this one a tough hill to climb for Republicans. This one will come down to name ID and resources. I predict that Brad Sherman is going to win re-election.

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