2020 Primary Analysis: 34th Congressional District

The 34th Congressional District falls entirely within the boundaries of Los Angeles County. Jimmy Gomez (D) is the incumbent and has held the seat since 2017. He replaced Xavier Becerra who went on to become Attorney General.

This district shows the following party registration for the three largest political groups (the source is http://www.l2political.com):

Republican- 8.7%
Democrat- 57.8%
NPP- 28.1%

The number of Republicans is embarrassingly low and that made it clear why no Republican ran in the 2018 primary. We had a unique race between Gomez, a member of the Green Party, and a Libertarian. Here are the 2018 primary results:

Jimmy Gomez (D)- 78.7%
Kenneth Mejia (G)- 12.9%
Angela Elise McArdle (L)- 8.4%

163,001 ballots were cast in this race. This is one of the few races in the era of the jungle primary that has seen a third party candidate advance to the run-off.

2020 saw a Republican candidate run in the primary. The registration was too steep to overcome and we will see another situation where two Democrats face-off in November. Here are the results from the March 3 2020 election:

Jimmy Gomez (D)- 52.0%
David Kim (D)- 21.4%
Frances Yasmeen Motiwalla (D)- 13.2%
Keanakay Scott (D)- 5.5%
Joanne Wright (R)- 8.0%

For this election, we saw 97,911 voters turnout and cast a ballot in this race. 92.0% of the vote went to a Democrat and 8.0% of the vote went to a Republican. This was one of the few races we saw with lower turnout in 2020 when compared to 2018

We will now see a November faceoff between Jimmy Gomez (D) and David Kim (D). Gomez is the incumbent member of the US House of Representatives. Kim is an attorney and member of the MacArthur Park Neighborhood Council.

Not to play into identity politics but two key factors are playing a part in my prediction. 50% of voters in CD 34 are Latino and it is tough to beat an incumbent. I predict that Jimmy Gomez is going to win re-election.

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