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2020 Primary Analysis: 36th Congressional District

The 36th Congressional District falls entirely within the boundaries of Riverside County. Raul Ruiz (D) is the incumbent and has held the seat since 2012. He replaced Janice Hahn who got redistricted out of this district.

This district shows the following party registration for the three largest political groups (the source is http://www.l2political.com):

Republican- 30.9%
Democrat- 40.7%
NPP- 22.0%

In California, this could be considered a competitive district based on registration numbers. This might explain why so many Republicans ran to become the challenger in 2018. Here are the 2018 primary results:

Raul Ruiz (D)- 55.0%
Stephen Wolkowicz (R)- 4.7%
Robert Bentley (R)- 4.2%
Douglas Hassett (R)- 5.0%
Kimberlin Brown Peltzer (R)- 23.2%
Dan Ball (R)- 7.8%

119,121 ballots were cast in this race. 55.0% of the vote went to a Democrat and 45.0% of the vote went to a Republican.

2020 saw a stronger performance by the Democrat incumbent. Although I could attribute this boost to similar factors as in previous posts. Those factors would include Democrats having a competitive Presidential Primary and the race taking place on Super Tuesday Here are the results from the March 3 2020 election:

Raul Ruiz (D)- 59.9%
Erin Cruz (R)- 21.8%
Patrice Kimbler (R)- 7.6%
Milo Stevanovich (R)- 10.8%

For this election, we saw 147,475 voters turnout and cast a ballot in this race. 59.9% of votes were cast for a Democrat and 40.1% of votes were cast for a Republican

We will now see a November matchup between Raul Ruiz (D) and Erin Cruz (R). Ruiz is the incumbent member of the US House of Representatives. Cruz is a businesswoman and Tea Party Republican.

This race is another tough one for Republicans based on the voter turnout model. I predict that Raul Ruiz is going to win re-election.

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