2020 Primary Analysis: 37th Congressional District

The 37th Congressional District falls entirely within the boundaries of Riverside County. Karen Bass (D) is the incumbent and has held the seat since 2012. You might remember that she used to be the Speaker of the Assembly. She won this seat after Laura Richardson was drawn into a separate district.

This district shows the following party registration for the three largest political groups (the source is http://www.l2political.com):

Republican- 62.4%
Democrat- 7.9%
NPP- 24.7%

It would be safe to say that this is one of the least competitive seats in California. Here are the 2018 primary results:

Karen Bass (D)- 89.2%
Ron Bassilian (R)- 10.8%

111,138 ballots were cast in this race. The scary fact is that Republicans typically have a stronger showing in a Primary as opposed to November.

In 2020, Karen Bass only got 88% of the vote although having an NPP candidate in the race may have eaten some of her votes. Here are the results from the March 3 2020 election:

Karen Bass (D)- 88.0%
Errol Webber (R)- 7.7%
Larry Thompson (NPP)- 4.3%

Quite frankly, the Republicans are lucky to have had a candidate make it to the November election. With such a large number of NPP voters, this race could have easily seen the Republicans get locked out.

We will now see a November matchup between Karen Bass (D) and Errol Webber (R). Bass is the incumbent member of the US House of Representatives. Webber works in the film industry.

No need for deep analysis on this one, the result is clear. I predict that Karen Bass is going to win re-election.

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