2020 Primary Analysis: 38th Congressional District

The 38th Congressional District falls within the boundaries of Los Angeles County and Orange County. Linda Sanchez (D) is the incumbent and has held the seat since 2012. She won this seat after Grace Napolitano was drawn into a separate district.

This district shows the following party registration for the three largest political groups (the source is http://www.l2political.com):

Republican- 20.3%
Democrat- 49.0%
NPP- 25.4%

Linda Sanchez is the sister of former Orange County Congresswoman Loretta Sanchez. Here are the 2018 primary results:

Linda Sanchez (D)- 62.7%
Ryan Downing (R)- 37.3%

87,275 ballots were cast in this race. This is a race where we got a preview of November in the primary. Downing did lose in the November election as well.

In 2020, we saw another head-to-head matchup in the primary election. However, the primary was between two Democrats. Here are the results from the March 3 2020 election:

Linda Sanchez (D)- 77.7%
Michael Tolar (D)- 22.3%

This race is one where the Republicans get locked out. It will be interesting seeing a race between long time Representative Sanchez and newcomer Tolar.

We will now see a November matchup between Linda Sanchez (D) and Michael Tolar (D). Sanchez is the incumbent member of the US House of Representatives. Tolar is a young political newcomer.

Party affiliation will not come into play; however, Sanchez has the advantage of name ID and resources. I predict that Linda Sanchez is going to win re-election.

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