2020 Primary Analysis: 40th Congressional District

The 40th Congressional District falls entirely within the boundaries of Los Angeles County. Lucille Roybal-Allard (D) is the incumbent and has held the seat since 2012.

This district shows the following party registration for the three largest political groups (the source is http://www.l2political.com):

Republican- 9.9%
Democrat- 58.6%
NPP- 26.3%

Republicans didn’t even field a candidate in 2018. We instead saw the incumbent Lucille Roybal-Allard take on a member of the Green Party. Here are the 2018 primary results:

Lucille Roybal-Allard (D)- 80.3%
Rodolfo Barragan (G)- 19.7%

44,377 ballots were cast in this race. That is a shockingly low vote total compared to other races.

For some reason, we saw a huge number of candidates jump into the 2020 primary race. Here are the results from the March 3 2020 election:

Anthony Felix Jr. (D)- 12.4%
Lucille Roybal-Allard (D)- 50.6%
David John Sanchez (D)- 13.4%
C Antonio Delgado (R)- 13.9%
Michael Donnell Graham Jr. (AI)- 2.6%
Rodolfo Barragan (G)- 7.1%

68,156 ballots were cast in this race. A large increase from 2018 but still low compared to other districts. The Republicans would have likely gotten locked out of this race had we seen fewer Democrats jump into the primary. With the vote split, C Antonio Delgado snuck out a narrow 2nd place finish and will advance.

We will now see a November matchup between Lucille Roybal-Allard (D) and C Antonio Delgado (R). Allard is the incumbent member of the US House of Representatives. Delgado is an immigrant and an attorney.

The registration gap is just too much in this district. I predict that Lucille Roybal-Allard is going to win re-election.

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