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2020 Primary Analysis: 41st Congressional District

The 41st Congressional District falls entirely within the boundaries of Riverside County. Mark Takano (D) is the incumbent and has held the seat since 2012.

This district shows the following party registration for the three largest political groups (the source is http://www.l2political.com):

Republican- 24.3%
Democrat- 46.7%
NPP- 23.4%

This is a region that used to be represented by Republican Jerry Lewis (Prior to 2010 census re-districting). Over time, this district has become more blue. Here are the 2018 primary results:

Mark Takano (D)- 58.5%
Aja Smith (R)- 41.5%

77,945 ballots were cast in this race. That is a percentage result that falls solidly in-line with what you would expect based on party registration.

Mark Takano gained a challenger from his own party and Republican Aja Smith made a comeback for the 2020 race. Here are the results from the March 3 2020 election:

Mark Takano (D)- 50.4%
Grace Williams (D)- 15.2%
Aja Smith (R)- 34.4%

103,264 ballots were cast in this race. 65.6% of votes went to a Democrat and 34.4% of votes went to a Democrat. This showed a much larger swing in votes for a Democrat in 2020 as compared to 2018.

We will now see a November rematch between Mark Takano (D) and Aja Smith (R). Takano is the incumbent member of the US House of Representatives. Delgado is a United States Veteran.

This seat does not have the metrics necessary to flip. I predict that Mark Takano is going to win re-election.

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