2020 Primary Analysis: 44th Congressional District

The 44th Congressional District falls entirely within the boundaries of Los Angeles County. Nanette Diaz Barragan (D) is the incumbent and has held the seat since 2016. She took over for Janice Hahn who retired to run for Los Angeles County Supervisor.

This district shows the following party registration for the three largest political groups (the source is http://www.l2political.com):

Republican- 9.8%
Democrat- 59.1%
NPP- 25.8%

The Republicans froze themselves out of those race in 2018 by having multiple candidates run in the primary. Here are the 2018 primary results:

Nanette Diaz Barragan (D)- 65.5%
Aja Brown (D)- 17.0%
Jazmina Saavedra (R)- 10.2%
Stacey Dash (R)- 7.2%

60,224 ballots were cast in this race. If you total the percentage of the vote between the two Republicans, you will see that a consolidated percentage would have advanced one of them to November.

In 2020 we saw three Democrats and one Republican run and we see that the Republican still got locked out of the November election. Here are the results from the March 3 2020 election:

Nanette Diaz Barragan (D)- 63.2%
Morris Griffin (D)- 8.9%
Analilia Joya (D)- 14.3%
Billy Earley (R)- 13.5%

80,698 ballots were cast in this race. Analilia Joya was able to squeak out a spot in the run-off and will make it to the November election.

We will now see an inner-party face-off between Nanette Diaz Barragan (D) and Analilia Joya (D). Barragan is the incumbent member of the US House of Representatives. Joya claims to have worked in the political sector for a long time.

Joya will lack the resources and name ID to take out a member of her own party.. I predict that Nanette Diaz Barragan is going to win re-election.

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