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2020 Primary Analysis: 46th Congressional District

The 46th Congressional District falls entirely within the boundaries of Orange County. Lou Correa (D) is the incumbent and has held the seat since 2016. He took over for Loretta Sanchez who retired to run for US Senate.

This district shows the following party registration for the three largest political groups (the source is http://www.l2political.com):

Republican- 21.3%
Democrat- 47.9%
NPP- 26.1%

Lou Correa faced his first re-election attempt in 2018. Here are the 2018 primary results:

Lou Correa (D)- 62.2%
Russell Rene Lambert (R)- 32.4%
Ed Rushman (NPP)- 3.3%
Will Johnson (NPP)- 2.0%

70,208 ballots were cast in this race. The turnout numbers were quite low for a seat in Orange County.

In 2020 we saw Correa face a challenge from a candidate on the left as well as the same two NPP candidates . Here are the results from the March 3 2020 election:

Lou Correa (D)- 58.2%
Pablo Mendiolea (D)- 9.0%
Will Johnson (NPP)- 2.3%
Ed Rushman (NPP)- 3.2%
James Waters (R)- 27.4%

103,139 ballots were cast in this race. The Republicans had no problem advancing a candidate to take on Correa in the November run-off.

We will now see a matchup between Lou Correa (D) and James Waters (R). Correa is the incumbent member of the US House of Representatives. Waters is a retired, disabled Veteran.

This is another race that is tough due to the registration gap. I predict that Lou Correa is going to win re-election.

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