Local

2020 Primary Analysis: 47th Congressional District

The 47th Congressional District falls within the boundaries of Orange County and Los Angeles County. Alan Lowenthal (D) is the incumbent and has held the seat since 2012.

This district shows the following party registration for the three largest political groups (the source is http://www.l2political.com):

Republican- 23.7%
Democrat- 44.5%
NPP- 26.1%

Alan Lowenthal ended up with two Republican opponents in the 2018 election. Here are the 2018 primary results:

Alan Lowenthal (D)- 60.6%
David Clifford (R)- 17.8%
John Briscoe (R)- 21.6%

116,348 ballots were cast in this race. As I stated in my analysis of CD 42 (Calvert), it is virtually impossible to beat a candidate who breaks 60% in the primary. That statistic held true in this race.

In 2020 we saw a large number of candidates run against Lowenthal for some reason, including John Briscoe jumping into the fray again. Here are the results from the March 3 2020 election:

Alan Lowenthal (D)- 45.0%
Peter Mathews (D)- 10.7%
Jalen Dupree McLeod (D)- 8.4%
John Briscoe (R)- 17.3%
Sou Moua (R)- 3.8%
Amy Phan West (R)- 14.8%

82,428 ballots were cast in this race. Briscoe did not necessarily run the strongest campaign but he had the highest name ID and none of the challengers ran a particularly strong campaign. 64.1% of the vote went to a Democrat and 35.9% of the vote went to a Democrat.

We will now see a rematch between Alan Lowenthal (D) and John Briscoe (R). Lowenthal is the incumbent member of the US House of Representatives. Briscoe is an Ocean View School District Trustee.

No chance to flip this seat. I predict that Alan Lowenthal is going to win re-election.

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