2020 Primary Analysis: 50th Congressional District

The 50th Congressional District falls within the boundaries of San Diego County and Riverside County. Duncan Hunter (R) was the incumbent; however, he had to resign following a campaign finance scandal.

Unlike in CD 25 where we had two elections (you can read the recap here), this race avoided that scenario. We will remain with a vacancy up until the November election is complete.

This district shows the following party registration for the three largest political groups (the source is http://www.l2political.com):

Republican- 39.6%
Democrat- 28.3%
NPP- 25.3%

This is a pretty safe Republican seat looking at numbers from 2018 and 2020. Here are the 2018 numbers:

Ammar Campa-Najjar (D)- 17.6%
Josh Butner (D)- 12.9%
Patrick Malloy (D)- 5.9%
Duncan Hunter (R)- 47.4%
S. “Shamus” Sayed (R)- 2.1%
Bill Wells (R)- 12.9%
Richard Kahle (NPP)- 1.2%

If you calculate the totals from this election, you will see that 127,706 ballots were cast. We also saw 62.4% of voters cast a ballot for a Republican and 36.4% of voters cast a vote for a Democrat. Hunter went on to win in November.

In the March 2020 election, we saw an interesting matchup between Darrell Issa (who had just resigned from CD 49 after winning in 2016) and radio host Carl DeMaio. The results of this race were as follows:

Marisa Calderon (D)- 5.5%
Ammar Campa-Najjar (D)- 36.4%
Carl DeMaio (R)- 20.0%
Darrell Issa (R)- 23.4%
Brian Jones (R)- 10.7%
Nathan “Nate” Wilkins (R)- 2.1%
Jose Cortes (PF)- 0.8%
Helen Horvath (NPP)- 0.6%
Lucinda Jahn (NPP)- 0.2%
Henry Alan Ota (NPP)- 0.4%

Democrat candidates received 41.9% of the vote and Republican candidates received 56.2% of the vote.

Issa winning is good news for Republicans because he is a strong candidate with name ID. We will now see a November faceoff between Ammar Campa-Najjar (D) and Darrell Issa (R). Issa is a former United States Representative. Najjar ran against Hunter two years ago and was very competitive when compared to registration numbers.

My prediction is based on the fact that Republicans have Issa as their nominee and the registration numbers lean toward the GOP. I predict that Darrell Issa will win this seat.

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