2020 Primary Analysis: 51st Congressional District

The 51st Congressional District falls within the boundaries of San Diego County and Imperial County. Juan Vargas (D) is the incumbent and has held the seat since 2012. Prior to Vargas, Bob Filner held the seat. Filner left to become the Mayor of San Diego.

This district shows the following party registration for the three largest political groups (the source is http://www.l2political.com):

Republican- 16.0%
Democrat- 46.8%
NPP- 30.9%

The Republicans had three challengers for this seat in spite of it being an almost hopeless race. Here are the 2018 primary results:

Juan Vargas (D)- 64.0%
John Renison Jr. (R)- 14.0%
Louis Fuentes (R)- 1.7%
Juan Hidalgo Jr. (R)- 15.3%
Juan Carlos Mercado (NPP)- 3.1%
Kevin Mitchell (NPP)- 1.9%

78,318 ballots were cast in this race. 64.0% of the vote went to a Democrat and 31.0% of the vote went to a Republican.

In 2020 we saw three Democrats and one Republican run and we see that the Republican still got locked out of the November election. Here are the results from the March 3 2020 election:

Juan Vargas (D)- 71.0%
Juan Hidalgo, Jr. (R)- 29.0%

102,117 ballots were cast in this race. This was basically an exact preview of the November election.

We will now see a matchup between Juan Vargas (D) and Juan Hidalgo, Jr. (R). Vargas is the incumbent member of the US House of Representatives. Hidalgo Jr. was the challenger from 2018.

The result on this one is going to be the same as 2018. I predict that Juan Vargas is going to win re-election.

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