2020 Primary Analysis: 52nd Congressional District

The 52nd Congressional District falls within the boundaries of San Diego County. Scott Peters (D) is the incumbent and has held the seat since 2012.

This district shows the following party registration for the three largest political groups (the source is http://www.l2political.com):

Republican- 27.7%
Democrat- 36.7%
NPP- 29.9%

This is a seat that you would expect Republicans to be more competitive in. A giant number of Republicans ran in the 2018 primary. Here are the 2018 primary results:

Scott Peters (D)- 59.0%
Jeffrey Cullen (R)- 2.4%
Danny Casara (R)- 4.6%
John Horst (R)- 3.4%
James Veltmeyer (R)- 11.4%
Michael Allman (R)- 3.9%
Omar Qudrat (R)- 15.3%

167,236 ballots were cast in this race. 59.0% of the vote went to a Democrat and 41.0% of the vote went to a Republican. Peters coasted in his re-election bid.

In 2020 we saw three Democrats and one Republican run and we see that the Republican still got locked out of the November election. Here are the results from the March 3 2020 election:

Scott Peters (D)- 49.3%
Nancy Casady (D)- 15.5%
Jim DeBello (R)- 32.7%
Ryan Cunningham (R)- 2.5%

221,362 ballots were cast in this race. This seat is competitive enough that a Republican was not in danger of missing the run-off.

We will now see a matchup between Scott Peters (D) and Jim DeBello (R). Peters is the incumbent member of the US House of Representatives. DeBello is an Ivy League grad with a strong business background.

If this was a Gubernatorial cycle, I would actually give DeBello a fighting chance. I predict that Scott Peters is going to win re-election.

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