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2020 Primary Analysis: 53rd Congressional District

The 53rd Congressional District falls within the boundaries of San Diego County. Susan Davis (D) is the incumbent and has held the seat since 2002. She is the only candidate to ever hold CD 53.

However, that will change in 2020 with Davis not seeking re-election.

This district shows the following party registration for the three largest political groups (the source is http://www.l2political.com):

Republican- 22.1%
Democrat- 43.6%
NPP- 28.1%

This is another race that saw a giant number of Republicans run in the 2018 primary. Here are the 2018 primary results:

Susan Davis (D)- 64.1%
Matt Mendoza (R)- 13.6%
Brett Goda (R)- 2.0%
Morgan Murtaugh (R)- 14.3%
Shawn Gino Kane (R)- 3.7%
Bryan Kim (NPP)- 2.4%

145,265 ballots were cast in this race. Davis was easily re-elected in November.

In 2020 we saw tmultiple Democrats and Republicans run for the open seat. Republicans saw some bad luck in this seat with two Democrats moving on to November. Here are the results from the March 3 2020 election:

John Brooks (D)- 1.4%
Jose Caballero (D)- 1.6%
Joseph Fountain (D)- 1.9%
Janessa Goldbeck (D)- 8.5%
Georgette Gomez (D)- 20.2%
Sara Jacobs (D)- 29.2%
Eric Roger Kutner (D)- 0.4%
Annette Meza (D)- 2.1%
Suzette Santori (D)- 0.8%
Joaquin Vazquez (D)- 1.4%
Tom Wong (D)- 3.5%
Michael Patrick Oristian (R)- 7.5%
Famela Ramos (R)- 7.5%
Chris Stoddard (R)- 13.2%
Fernando Garcia (NPP)- 0.9%

191,931 ballots were cast in this race. This seat is going to be a very competitive inner-party battle.

We will now see a matchup between Sara Jacobs (D) and Georgette Gomez (D). Jacobs is the candidate who ran just two years ago I the 49th Congressional District. Gomez has experience on the City Council in San Diego.

Jacobs finished on top in the primary but I think Gomez will have a stronger showing in November. Latino registration is a significant factor in this race as well. I predict that Georgette Gomez is going to win this one.

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