2020 Primary Analysis: 23rd Senate District

The 23rd Senate District falls within the boundaries of Los Angeles County, Riverside County, and San Bernardino County. Mike Morrell (R) is the incumbent and has held the seat since 2014 (Special Election). Morrell won a special election after the resignation of Bill Emmerson.

This district shows the following party registration for the three largest political groups (the source is http://www.l2political.com):

Republican- 34.7%
Democrat- 36.0%
NPP- 22.4%

This is another competitive seat that could see either party win. We saw four candidates run for the open seat in 2016. Here are the 2016 primary results:

Ronald O’Donnell (D)- 29.8%
Mark Westwood (D)- 15.4%
Mike Morrell (R)- 54.8%

170,634 ballots were cast in this race. 54.8% of the vote went to a Republican and 45.2% of the vote went to a Democrat. This is a slightly better number for Republicans than SD 21. When compared to November, Morrell did extremely well, achieving victory over O’Donnell by a total of 56.6% vs. 43.4%.

This seat was one of the safer Republican seats in 2016 based on the percentages.

However, in 2020 we saw Morrell not seek re-election. Due to the seat being open, we saw two Democrats and three Republicans run in the primary. Here are the results from the March 3 2020 election:

Kris Goodfellow (D)- 17.4%
Abigail Medina (D)- 27.7%
Rosilicie Ochoa Bogh (R)- 25.1%
Cristina Puraci (R)- 8.0%
Lloyd White (R)- 21.8%

206,739 ballots were cast in this race. We saw a Republican get 54.9% of the vote (Compared to 54.8% in 2016) and Democrats combine for 45.1% of the vote (Compared to 45.2% in 2018). This shows that Republicans appeared to be stronger in 2020 than 2016.

We will now see a matchup between Abigail Medina (D) and Rosilicie Ochoa Bogh (R). Bogh is a Realtor and a graduate of local schools. Medina is a school board member in San Bernardino.

The registration and primary numbers look pretty strong for Republicans. I predict that Rosalicie Ochoa Bogh is going to win this seat.

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