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2020 Primary Analysis: 27th Senate District

The 27th Senate District falls within the boundaries of Los Angeles County and Ventura County. Henry Stern (D) is the incumbent and has held the seat since 2016.

This district shows the following party registration for the three largest political groups (the source is http://www.l2political.com):

Republican- 27.4%
Democrat- 41.9%
NPP- 24.8%

This seat is more competitive than others in the State Senate. It is a likely Democrat seat but under certain circumstances could flip. Here are the 2016 primary results:

George Christopher Thomas (D)- 2.9%
Shawn Bayliss (D)- 6.1%
David Pollock (D)- 7.3%
Janice Kamenir-Reznick (D)- 19.2%
Henry Stern (D)- 27.3%
Steve Fazio (R)- 37.1%

209,468 ballots were cast in this race. Unlike most races in California, the Republican candidate gained a higher percentage of the vote in November in spite of being the only Republican in both races. Fazio got 44.1% of the vote in November but did lose to Stern.

In 2020, the seat was not a friendly one for the Republican candidate. Here are the numbers form the March 2020 election:

Henry Stern (D)- 63.8%
Houman Salem (R)- 36.2%

We basically got a preview of November for this race. In November the follow up race between Henry Stern (D) and Houman Salem (R) will take place.

This one will stay with the Dems as I predict that Henry Stern will win re-election.

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