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2020 Primary Analysis: 29th Senate District

The 29th Senate District falls within the boundaries of Los Angeles County, San Bernardino County and Orange County. This seat is going to take some explaining. Ling Ling Chang (R) was the incumbent in 2016 when she lost in a narrow race to Josh Newman. Newman then got recalled in 2018 and was replaced by Ling Ling Chang who won in the special election.

This district shows the following party registration for the three largest political groups (the source is http://www.l2political.com):

Republican- 31.1%
Democrat- 37.4%
NPP- 26.9%

This seat is another extremely competitive seat. Either party can win in the November election. Here are the 2016 primary results:

Josh Newman (D)- 29.2%
Sukhee Kang (D)- 26.8%
Ling Ling Chang (R)- 44.0%

167,034 ballots were cast in this race. Chang did make the race much closer in November but still fell short of Newman. Chang got 49.6% of the vote in November but Newman got 50.4%.

In 2020, Chang had a much stronger showing than in 2016. Here are the numbers from the March 2020 election:

Joseph Cho (D)- 19.0%
Josh Newman (D)- 33.5%
Ling Ling Chang (R)- 47.5%

In November the rematch will take place between Josh Newman (D) and Ling Ling Chang (R) will take place.

Newman has won this seat before but the whole bear costume and ice cream truck strategy is just too gimmicky, in my opinion. I predict that Ling Ling Chang will win a close race.

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