2020 Primary Analysis: 37th Senate District

The 37th Senate District falls entirely within the boundaries of Orange County. This seat is one that I am very familiar with, mainly because I live in SD 37. John Moorlach (R) has been the incumbent since he beat Don Wagner in a 2015 special election.

This district shows the following party registration for the three largest political groups (the source is http://www.l2political.com):

Republican- 35.5%
Democrat- 32.8%
NPP- 26.6%

This seat actually looks to be competitive during this election cycle. Here are the 2016 primary results:

Ari Grayson (D)- 45.2%
John Moorlach (R)- 54.8%

208,909 ballots were cast in this race. If you have read my prior posts about Orange County having a 10% swing in November, you would expect this race to be close in November of 2016. The opposite result happened in November of 2016 with Moorlach expanding is lead. In November, Moorlach got 57.0% of the vote and Grayson got 43.0%.

In 2020, Moorlach faces a tougher field with former CD 45 candidate Dave Min and Costa Mesa Mayor Katrina Foley. Here are the numbers from the March 2020 election:

Katrina Foley (D)- 24.7%
Dave Min (D)- 28.0%
John Moorlach (R)- 47.3%

My takeaways from this result are that this was an embarrassing result for Katrina Foley, facing someone who had never holding elected office in Dave Min and falling short. Additionally, this was a scary low percentage for Moorlach in a primary election.

In November we will see the matchup between Dave Min (D) and John Moorlach (R) on the ballot.

I personally like John Moorlach but this race is going to be predicted as a toss-up and if you forced me to choose, I would give a very narrow edge to Moorlach.

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