2020 Primary Analysis: 38th Assembly District

The 38th Assembly District falls within the boundaries of Los Angeles County and Ventura County. Christy Smith (D) was the incumbent in this race; however she chose to run for the Congressional seat that was vacated by Katie Hill. This seat was a major screw-up for Democrats and you will soon learn why.

This district shows the following party registration for the three largest political groups (the source is http://www.l2political.com):

Republican- 33.5%
Democrat- 35.7%
NPP- 24.6%

Based on the above registration, you would think that Democrats hold a slight advantage. The 2016 numbers would also seem to also show that Democrats hold an advantage. Here are the 2016 primary results:

Christy Smith (D)- 46.4%
Dante Acosta (R)- 53.6%

92,675 ballots were cast in this race. As I have said in a few prior posts, this margin did not look likely to withstand the turnout model for November. In November my prediction rang true, Smith won by a margin of 51.5% to 48.5%

You would think that 2020 would provide an even better likelihood for Democrats to maintain the seat. However they had too many candidates run and split the vote in March. Here are the March 2020 results:

Dina Cervantes (D)- 8.8%
Annie Cho (D)- 12.5%
Susan Christopher (D)- 5.8%
Kelvin Driscoll (D)- 12.0%
Brandii Grace (D)- 11.6%
Suzette Martinez Valladares (R)- 31.8%
Lucie Lapointe Volotzky (R)- 17.7%

This seat will now go back to the Republicans due to the Democrats being frozen out of the November election.

We will now see an inner-party match between Suzette Martinez Valladeres (R) and Lucie Lapointe Volotzky (R). Valladeres is a non-profit CEO and Volotzky is a local business owner.

The margin of victory for Valladeres in March cannot be overlooked. I predict that Suzette Martinez Valladeres will win this race.

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