2020 Primary Analysis: 39th Assembly District

The 39th Assembly District falls entirely within the boundaries of Los Angeles County. Luz Rivas (D) is the incumbent in this race. She has held the seat since 2018, following the resignation of Raul Bocanegra .

This district shows the following party registration for the three largest political groups (the source is http://www.l2political.com):

Republican- 13.9%
Democrat- 52.1%
NPP- 28.4%

As outlined with registration, Democrats are a dominant faction in this seat. Here are the 2016 primary results:

Luz Maria Rivas (D)- 43.9%
Antonio Sanchez (D)- 10.1%
Patrea Patrick (D)- 3.7%
Patty Lopez (D)- 14.6%
Bonnie Corwin (D)- 2.6%
Ricardo Antonio Benitez (R)- 25.1%

46,580 ballots were cast in this race. We saw a very one sided race in November as I projected. Rivas won by a margin of 77.7% to 22.3% with a total amount of voters spiking to 109,495.

We did see a spike in primary turnout for March 2020 in wht proved to be a rematch between Luz Rivas and Ricardo Benitez. Here are the March 2020 results:

Luz Marie Rivas (D)- 77.8%
Ricardo Benitez (R)- 22.2%

Turnout increased to 70,102 voters for this election. This is a substantially higher number than we saw in June 2018.

We will now see a third matchup between Luz Marie Rivas (D) and Ricardo Benitez (R). Rivas is the elected incumbent and Benitez is a Libertarian leaning Republican.

This one is an easy pick based on registration. I predict that Luz Marie Rivas will win this race.

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