The 40th Assembly District falls entirely within the boundaries of San Bernardino County. James Ramos (D) is the incumbent in this race. Ramos won the seat in 2018 a Democratic gain from Republicans. The seat used to be held by Marc Steinorth (R) who chose not to seek re-election in 2018.

This district shows the following party registration for the three largest political groups (the source is http://www.l2political.com):

Republican- 29.6%
Democrat- 41.3%
NPP- 22.7%

This seat is one that has become less competitive over the years and went from red to blue very quickly. Here are the 2018 primary results:

Libbern Gwen Cook (D)- 13.6%
James Ramos (D)- 40.7%
Henry Gomez Nickel (R)- 45.7%

64,624 ballots were cast in this race. Considering the seat was held by a Republican up until 2018, this seat turned blue quickly. Ramos won by the large margin of 59.5% to 40.5% with a total amount of voters spiking to 130,331.

This seat might be held by the Dems for a while. Here are the March 2020 results:

James Ramos (D)- 59.4%
Jennifer Tullius (R)- 40.6%

Turnout increased to 92,313 voters for this election. Based on Dem turnout in this primary, I could see a stronger performance by the Republican in November.

We will now see a direct re-match between James Ramos (D) and Jennifer Tullius (R). Ramos is the elected incumbent and Tullius is a small business owner.

The district looks to be blue for at least another two years. I predict that James Ramos will win this race.