2020 Primary Analysis: 40th Assembly District

The 40th Assembly District falls entirely within the boundaries of San Bernardino County. James Ramos (D) is the incumbent in this race. Ramos won the seat in 2018 a Democratic gain from Republicans. The seat used to be held by Marc Steinorth (R) who chose not to seek re-election in 2018.

This district shows the following party registration for the three largest political groups (the source is http://www.l2political.com):

Republican- 29.6%
Democrat- 41.3%
NPP- 22.7%

This seat is one that has become less competitive over the years and went from red to blue very quickly. Here are the 2018 primary results:

Libbern Gwen Cook (D)- 13.6%
James Ramos (D)- 40.7%
Henry Gomez Nickel (R)- 45.7%

64,624 ballots were cast in this race. Considering the seat was held by a Republican up until 2018, this seat turned blue quickly. Ramos won by the large margin of 59.5% to 40.5% with a total amount of voters spiking to 130,331.

This seat might be held by the Dems for a while. Here are the March 2020 results:

James Ramos (D)- 59.4%
Jennifer Tullius (R)- 40.6%

Turnout increased to 92,313 voters for this election. Based on Dem turnout in this primary, I could see a stronger performance by the Republican in November.

We will now see a direct re-match between James Ramos (D) and Jennifer Tullius (R). Ramos is the elected incumbent and Tullius is a small business owner.

The district looks to be blue for at least another two years. I predict that James Ramos will win this race.

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