2020 Primary Analysis: 41st Assembly District

The 41st Assembly District falls within the boundaries of Los Angeles County and San Bernardino County. Chris Holden (D) is the incumbent in this race. Chris Holden has held the seat since the lines were drawn via re-districting in 2012.

This district shows the following party registration for the three largest political groups (the source is http://www.l2political.com):

Republican- 25.9%
Democrat- 45.0%
NPP- 23.6%

For some reason, Holden drew a challenger from the left in the 2018 race. Here are the 2018 primary results:

Chris Holden (D)- 59.8%
Kenneth Rotter (D)- 12.5%
Alan Reynolds (R)- 27.7%

91,472 ballots were cast in this race. We saw what could be naturally expected for the November result. Holden won by a margin of 64.2% to 35.8% with a total amount of voters at 176,711.

We saw a head-to-head matchup in the March primary election. Here are the March 2020 results:

Chris Holden (D)- 68.7%
Robin Hvidston (R)- 31.3%

Turnout increased to 137,455 voters for this election. This was not a particularly good sign for the Republicans.

We will now see a direct re-match between Chris Holden (D) and Robin Hvidston (R). Holden is the elected incumbent and Hvidston is the executive director of We The People Rising.

This seat does not have the metrics to flip. I predict that Chris Holden will win this race.

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