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2020 Primary Analysis: 42nd Assembly District

The 42nd Assembly District falls within the boundaries of Riverside County and San Bernardino County. Chad Mayes (NPP) is the incumbent in this race. Mayes was a Republican and drew the ire of many Republicans based on his vote on a recent budget. Just prior to the close of candidate filing (March 2020), Mayes re-registered as a No Party Preference voter.

This district shows the following party registration for the three largest political groups (the source is http://www.l2political.com):

Republican- 35.4%
Democrat- 35.7%
NPP- 21.8%

Based on his budget vote, Mayes drew two Republican challengers in the 2018 primary. Here are the 2018 primary results:

DeniAntionette Mazingo (D)- 35.6%
Carol Bouldin (G)- 3.4%
Gary Jeandron (R)- 16.0%
Andrew Kotyuk (R)- 12.3%
Chad Mayes (R)- 32.8%

94,236 ballots were cast in this race. One might see the possibility of Republicans either not voting or voting for the Dem in November. This did not materialize as Mayes did in fact win in November. Mayes won by a margin of 55.3% to 44.7% with a total amount of voters at 156,080.

Mayes changed his party affiliation at the last minute but Andrew Kotyuk was ready for this. Kotyuk managed to qualify for the ballot at the last minute. Here are the March 2020 results:

DeniAntionette Mazingo (D)- 31.3%
Andrew Kotyuk (R)- 33.6%
Chad Mayes (R)- 35.1%

Turnout increased to 120,197 voters for this election. The real loser in this primary ended up being the Democratic Party. They were frozen out of a race that should be competitive.

We will now see a direct match-up between Chad Mayes (NPP) and Andrew Kotyuk (R). Mayes is the elected incumbent and Kotyuk is an independent businessman.

This is the most unique Assembly race on the ballot in November. It just seems hard for an NPP candidate to win in November. I predict a rare incumbent loss in this one and believe that Andrew Kotyuk will win this race.

1 reply »

  1. Mayes is a weasel who deserves to lose. His real party affiliation is to the Chad Mayes party- its all about him. Hope Mr. Kotyuk wins and wins big.

    Like

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