2020 Primary Analysis: 46th Assembly District

The 46th Assembly District falls entirely within the boundaries of Los Angeles County. Adrin Nazarian (D) is the incumbent in this race. Nazarian has held the seat since the lines were drawn in 2012.

This district shows the following party registration for the three largest political groups (the source is http://www.l2political.com):

Republican- 13.5%
Democrat- 53.3%
NPP- 27.6%

In spite of the partisan gap, we saw a Republican run in 2018. Here are the 2018 primary results:

Adrin Nazarian (D)- 79.1%
Roxanne Beckford Hoge (R)- 20.9%

The November result were almost identical in the general, Nazarian easily won in November by a margin of 79.3% to 20.7%.

In 2020 drew a challenger from the left. Here are the March 2020 results:

Lanira Murphy (D)- 30.3%
Adrin Nazarian (D)- 69.7%

We will now see a re-match between Lanira Murphy (D) and Adrin Nazarian (D). Nazarian is the elected incumbent and Murphy is running for the first time.

I predict that Adrin Nazarian will win in November.

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