2020 Primary Analysis: 52nd Assembly District

The 52nd Assembly District falls within the boundaries of Los Angeles County and San Bernardino County. Freddie Rodriguez (D) is the incumbent in this race. Rodriguez first won the seat in 2013, following the resignation of Norma Torres. Rodriguez narrowly defeated Ontario Mayor Paul Leon, a Republican who ran as a No Party Preference candidate.

This district shows the following party registration for the three largest political groups (the source is http://www.l2political.com):

Republican- 20.3%
Democrat- 47.2%
NPP- 26.2%

Here are the result for the June 2018 race:

Frank Guzman (D)- 13.9%
Freddie Rodriguez (D)- 48.0%
Ben Gibbins (L)- 2.7%
Toni Holle (R)- 35.5%

The results were slightly worse for the Republican in November. Rodriguez won in November by a margin of 68.6% to 31.4%.

In 2020 we saw a rematch between Holle and Rodriguez. The results were very similar to November 2018 Here are the March 2020 results:

Freddie Rodriguez (D)- 68.8%
Toni Holle (R)- 31.2%

We will now see a third straigh re-match between Freddie Rodriguez (D) and Toni Holle (R). Rodriguez is the elected incumbent and Holle is a constitutional conservative.

The registration gap is just too large in this district. I predict that Freddie Rodriguez will win in November.

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