2020 Primary Analysis: 53rd Assembly District

The 53rd Assembly District falls entirely within the boundaries of Los Angeles County. Miguel Santiago (D) is the incumbent in this race. Santiago first won in 2014 after winning the open seat vacated by Assembly Speaker John Perez.

This district shows the following party registration for the three largest political groups (the source is http://www.l2political.com):

Republican- 8.2%
Democrat- 57.5%
NPP- 28.7%

Santiago drew three oppoents in 2018 but none of them were Republicans. Here are the result for the June 2018 race:

Miguel Santiago (D)- 69.0%
Kevin Hee Young Jang (D)- 16.5%
Rae Elisabeth Henry (D)- 6.8%
Michael Lewis (L)- 7.7%

Unsurprisingly, we saw an all Democrat matchup in November 2018. Santiago won in November by a margin of 71.4% to 28.6%.

In 2020 we saw another Democrat challenge Santiago. This time Santiago drew only one opponent. Here are the March 2020 results:

Godfrey Santos Plata (D)- 37.1%
Miguel Santiago (D)- 62.9%

We will now see an inner-party re-match between Godfrey Santos Plata (D) and Miguel Santiago (D). Santiago is the elected incumbent and Plata is running on a platform that Santiago is not progressive enough.

Santiago being an incumbent and having far more resources is not going to make him an easy target. I predict that Miguel Santiago will win in November.

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