2020 Primary Analysis: 57th Assembly District

The 57th Assembly District falls entirely within the boundaries of Los Angeles County. Ian Calderon (D) is the incumbent in this race. This seat has turned into the Calderon personal dynasty seat. Ian Calderon currently holds the seat, Charles Calderon (his father) held a seat in the Assembly, his uncle Tom Calderon also held a seat in the Assembly, his other uncle Ron Calderon also held a seat in the Assembly, and his mother Lisa Calderon is currently running for the seat.

Both Tom and Ron Calderon got into a bit of trouble but neither Charles or Ian were implicated in these misdeeds.

This district shows the following party registration for the three largest political groups (the source is http://www.l2political.com):

Republican- 21.4%
Democrat- 48.7%
NPP- 24.6%

Multiple Democrats and Republicans ran in 2018. Here are the result for the June 2018 race:

Blake Sullivan Carter (D)- 2.4%
Justin Joshua Valero (D)- 11.7%
Ian Calderon (D)- 46.6%
Jessica Martinez (R)- 23.7%
Oscar Llamas (R)- 15.5%

We saw a total of 58,207 ballots cast in the primary. The November election showed an easy run for Ian Calderon. Calderon won by a margin of 64.9% to 35.1%.

With the seat being open in 2020, we saw numerous candidates run. Here are the March 2020 results:

Josue Alvarado (D)- 13,7%
Lisa Calderon (D)- 20.1%
Primo Castro (D)- 3.8%
Gary Mendez (D)- 3.4%
Sylvia Rubio (D)- 17.1%
Vanessa Tyson (D)- 8.6%
Oscar Valladeres (D)- 1.6%
Jessica Martinez (R)- 28.7%

82,676 ballots were cast in this race. Part of the increase was likely due to 2020 being a Presidential cycle; however, this being a competitive seat likely had an impact as well.

We will now see a matchup between Lisa Calderon (D) and Jessica Martinez (R). Calderon as outlined above is the wife to former Assemblyman Charles and mother to current Assemblyman Ian. Martinez is active in her church.

People typically do not like political dynasties and I think that this will make the seat more competitive than registration. Republicans would have been better off running a currently elected candidate, if they were looking to flip the seat. I predict that Lisa Calderon will win this race in November.

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