2020 Primary Analysis: 58th Assembly District

The 58th Assembly District falls entirely within the boundaries of Los Angeles County. Cristina Garcia (D) is the incumbent in this race.

This district shows the following party registration for the three largest political groups (the source is http://www.l2political.com):

Republican- 16.6%
Democrat- 52.7%
NPP- 25.5%

Many candidates ran in 2018 due to sexual harassment allegations against Cristina Garcia. Here are the result for the June 2018 race:

Cristina Garcia (D)- 28.9%
Miguel Angel Alvarado (D)- 3.1%
John Paul Drayer (D)- 3.3%
Ivan Altamirano (D)- 7.6%
Karla Salazar (D)- 9.2%
Pedro Aceituno (D)- 12.7%
Frine Medrano (D)- 8.9%
Mike Simpfenderfer (R)- 26.4%

We saw a total of 50,221 ballots cast in the primary. The November election showed little issue for the accused Garcia. Garcia won by a margin of 70.4% to 29.6%.

Garcia pulling off such a large victory in 2018 appears to have dissuaded Republicans from challenging in 2020. The lone challenger to Garcia in 2020 was from the Green Party. Here are the March 2020 results:

Cristina Garcia (D)- 77.3%
Margaret Villa (G)- 22.7%

71,848 ballots were cast in this race. Not surprising to see the Democrat carry such a high percentage.

We will now see a rematch between Cristina Garcia (D) and Margaret Villa (G). Garcia is the elected incumbent and Villa is one of the few third party candidates to make it through to the November 2020 election.

No chance for a third party candidate to win here. I predict that Cristina Garcia will win this race in November.

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