2020 Primary Analysis: 59th Assembly District

The 59th Assembly District falls entirely within the boundaries of Los Angeles County. Reggie Jones-Sawyer (D) is the incumbent in this race.

This district shows the following party registration for the three largest political groups (the source is http://www.l2political.com):

Republican- 5.0%
Democrat- 64.4%
NPP- 25.1%

With registration like this, Republican might all know each other by name. Unsurprisingly, the only challenger for Sawyer-Jones came from the left. Here are the result for the June 2018 race:

Reggie Jones-Sawyer (D)- 76.8%
Leslie Hagan-Morgan (D)- 23.2%

We saw a total of 24,985 ballots cast in the primary. The November election was an easy one for Jones-Sawyer. Jones-Sawyer won by a margin of 66.9% to 33.1%.

This race looks like it is going to be awfully interesting in November based on the very strong showing by a challenger in March. Here are the March 2020 results:

Reggie Jones-Sawyer (D)- 44.9%
Efren Martinez (D)- 50.6%
Marcello Villeda (D)- 4.5%

44,288 ballots were cast in this race. That number is going to increase in November by a substantial margin.

We will now see a tough inner-party match between Reggie Jones-Sawyer (D) and Efren Martinez (D). Jones-Sawyer is the elected incumbent and Martinez is a public policy commissioner.

Martinez was boosted by a heavy registration advantage amongst Latino voters (56%). Jones-Sawyer is still a strong candidate and I see a lot of groups rallying for him in November. I predict that Reggie Jones-Sawyer will rally and win a close race in November.

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