Local

2020 Primary Analysis: 60th Assembly District

The 60th Assembly District falls entirely within the boundaries of Riverside County. Sabrina Cervantes (D) is the incumbent in this race.

This district shows the following party registration for the three largest political groups (the source is http://www.l2political.com):

Republican- 30.9%
Democrat- 41.7%
NPP- 22.0%

This seat used to be held by Republican Eric Linder up until 2016. It has moved leftward since then. Here are the result for the June 2018 race:

Sabrina Cervantes (D)- 47.1%%
Bill Essayli (R)- 52.9%

We saw a total of 57,880 ballots cast in the primary. This race fell into my model for a 5% shift in the general election (the numbers actually shifted more here). Cervantes won by a margin of 54.1% to 45.9%.

This district has appeared to have veered even further to the left (based on March 2020 numbers). Here are the March 2020 results:

Sabrina Cervantes (D)- 54.2%
Chris Raahauge (R)- 45.8%

83,859 ballots were cast in this race. The increase in turnout could lessen the 5% shift that I normally predict.

We will now see a rematch between Sabrina Cervantes (D) and Chris Raahauge (R). Cervantes is the elected incumbent and Raahauge is a longtime resident of the district.

The numbers do not show that this seat is going to flip back during this cycle. I predict that Sabrina Cervantes wins in November.

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