2020 Primary Analysis: 64th Assembly District

The 64th Assembly District falls entirely within the boundaries of Los Angeles County. Mike Gipson (D) is the incumbent in this race.

This district shows the following party registration for the three largest political groups (the source is http://www.l2political.com):

Republican- 8.2%
Democrat- 61.5%
NPP- 24.9%

As I have stated before (including the last post), any district that has higher NPP than Republican registration, it is not typically winnable. I will give the Republicans credit, they ran a last-minute candidate as a write-in and ended up qualifying for the November ballot. Here are the result for the June 2018 race:

Mike Gipson (D)- 100.0%
Theresa Sanford (Write-In) (R)- 9 Votes

We saw a total of 29,431 ballots cast in the primary. The number is a bit skewed due to the race being uncontested as far as the printed ballot was concerned. In November, Gipson won by a margin of 84.7% to 15.3%.

No Republican chose to run in 2020; however, Democrat Fatima Iqbal-Zubair is making a run from the left. Here are the March 2020 results:

Mike Gipson (D)- 67.5%
Fatima Iqbal-Zubair (D)- 32.5%

56,793 ballots were cast in this race. This race was substantially increased in terms of turnout.

We will now see a rematch between Mike Gipson (D) and Fatima Iqbal-Zubair (D). Gipson is the elected incumbent and Iqbal-Zubair is a teacher/community advocate.

Incumbency is too powerful in this race. I predict that Mike Gipson wins in November.

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