The 65th Assembly District falls entirely within the boundaries of Orange County. Sharon Quirk-Silva (D) is the incumbent in this race. This seat flipped back and forth for a while between Republicans and Democrats. Quirk-Silva beat Norby in 2012, lost to Young Kim in 2014, beat Young Kim in 2016, and then held off a challenge from Alexandria Coronado in 2018.
This district shows the following party registration for the three largest political groups (the source is http://www.l2political.com):
Democrats have made tremendous inroads into North Orange County and this seat is a result of the work they put in. Here are the result for the June 2018 race:
Sharon Quirk-Silva (D)- 52.9%
Alexandria Coronado (R)- 47.1%
We saw a total of 81,046 ballots cast in the primary. The numbers when adding my 5% rule should have shown a win for Quirk-Silva by a margin of 57.9% to 42.1%. In November, the actual results showed that Quirk-Silva won by a margin of 57.2% to 42.8%. My model was fairly accurate for this specific race.
Cynthia Thacker is carrying the torch for Republicans in the 2020 election. Here are the March 2020 results:
Sharon Quirk-Silva (D)- 57.7%
Cynthia Thacker (R)- 42.3%
94,036 ballots were cast in this race. This turnout was higher in 2020 which clearly favored most Democrats.
We will now see a rematch between Sharon Quirk-Silva (D) and Cynthia Thacker (R). Quirk-Silva is the elected incumbent and Thacker is a retired businesswoman and longtime activist with the Republican Party.
Thacker is a great Republican and has done a lot for the party but the registration numbers have just slipped too far in this district. I predict that Sharon Quirk-Silva wins in November.