2020 Primary Analysis: 66th Assembly District

The 66th Assembly District falls entirely within the boundaries of Los Angeles County. Al Muratsuchi (D) is the incumbent in this race. This seat also changed hands a couple of times. Muratsuchi won in 2012, David Hadley took the seat in 2014, Muratsuchi took the seat back in 2016, and Muratsuchi retained in 2018.

This district shows the following party registration for the three largest political groups (the source is http://www.l2political.com):

Republican- 27.3%
Democrat- 42.3%
NPP- 25.2%

For some reason a Democrat chose to challenge Muratsuchi in the 2018 primary. Here are the result for the June 2018 race:

Al Muratsuchi (D)- 50.9%
Caney Arnold (D)- 6.0%
Frank Scotto (R)- 43.2%

We saw a total of 94,315 ballots cast in the primary. This seat is definitely continuing to tilt further to the left. In November, Muratsuchi won by a margin of 60.5% to 39.5%.

2020 does not appear to be much better for the Republican turnout model. Here are the March 2020 results:

Al Muratsuchi (D)- 66.2%
Arthur Schaper (R)- 33.8%

125,708 ballots were cast in this race. This seat has had a record of strong turnout when compared to most other seats.

We will now see a rematch between Al Muratsuchi (D) and Arthur Schaper (R). Muratsuchi is the elected incumbent and Schaper is a conservative Republican.

This seat has slowly drifted to the left, now at a level that makes it tough to flip the seat back. I predict that Al Muratsuchi wins in November.

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