Local

2020 Primary Analysis: 68th Assembly District

The 68th Assembly District falls entirely within the boundaries of Orange County. Steven Choi (R) is the incumbent in this race.

This district shows the following party registration for the three largest political groups (the source is http://www.l2political.com):

Republican- 35.4%
Democrat- 33.7%
NPP- 26.1%

Choi faced a lone challenger in 2018. Here are the result for the June 2018 race:

Michelle Duman (D)- 41.0%
Steven Choi (R)- 59.0%

We saw a total of 96,850 ballots cast in the primary. In November, Choi won by a margin of 53.1% to 46.9%.

Watch this seat very closely in 2020. I will outline why in the section below the primary numbers. Here are the March 2020 results:

Eugene Fields (D)- 13.2%
Melissa Fox (D)- 33.5%
Steven Choi (R)- 43.8%
Benjamin Yu (R)- 9.5%

131,501 ballots were cast in this race. The turnout was high but note the percentage of votes cast by party. 46.7% of voters cast a ballot for a Democrat and 53.3% of ballots were cast for a Republican.

We will now see a matchup between Melissa Fox (D) and Steven Choi (R). Choi is the elected incumbent and Fox is an Irvine City Councilwoman.

Melissa Fox is an Irvine City Councilwoman and is one of the strongest Democrats to ever challenge for this seat. Steven Choi has also provided an opening for attacks with his recent support for Assemblyman Bill Brough. I am going out on a limb here by predicting that Melissa Fox wins in November.

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