2020 Primary Analysis: 69th Assembly District

The 69th Assembly District falls entirely within the boundaries of Orange County. Tom Daly (D) is the incumbent in this race. Daly has held the seat since 2012.

This district shows the following party registration for the three largest political groups (the source is http://www.l2political.com):

Republican- 17.8%
Democrat- 51.7%
NPP- 26.0%

Daly drew a Libertarian challenger but not a Republican in 2018. The Libertarian ran as a write-in candidate. Here are the result for the June 2018 race:

Tom Daly (D)- 99.7%
Autumn Browne (L)- 0.3%

We saw a total of 30,492 ballots cast in the primary. Based on the jungle primary rules, the Libertarian candidate qualifies for the ballot in November due to finishing in the top two. In November, Daly won by a margin of 75.2% to 24.8%.

I was informed that no real Republican candidate recruitment effort was planned in 2020 but Republican Jon Paul White stepped up to run. Here are the March 2020 results:

Tom Daly (D)- 73.9%
Jon Paul White (R)- 26.1%

59,570 ballots were cast in this race. Turnout may be low but it will be heavily weighted in favor of Democrats.

We will now see a rematch between Tom Daly (D) and Jon Paul White (R). Daly is the elected incumbent and White is a Republican activist.

White has no shot in November but it is good for party building to contest the seat. I predict that Tom Daly wins in November.

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