2020 Primary Analysis: 73rd Assembly District

The 73rd Assembly District falls entirely within the boundaries of Orange County. Bill Brough (R) was the incumbent in this race. Unlike Tyler Diep, Brough did not have any particularly bad votes on his record. However, Brough was hit with multiple sexual harassment claims.

This district shows the following party registration for the three largest political groups (the source is http://www.l2political.com):

Republican- 41.3%
Democrat- 29.7%
NPP- 23.7%

This seat has traditionally been one of the strongest Republican seats in all of California. Here are the result for the June 2018 race:

Scott Rhinehart (D)- 39.4%
Bill Brough (R)- 47.1%
Ed Sachs (R)- 13.5%

We saw a total of 117,996 ballots cast in the primary. Brough was able to overcome his opponent from the right; however, no allegations had been made against him at this point. In November, Brough won by a margin of 56.2% to 43.8%.

With formal allegations having been made against Brough prior to the primary filing period, multiple challengers filed to run for the seat in 2020. Here are the March 2020 results:

Chris Duncan (D)- 18.4%
Scott Rhinehart (D)- 23.8%
William “Bill” Brough (R)- 16.6%
Laurie Davies (R)- 27.3%
Ed Sachs (R)- 13.9%

152,032 ballots were cast in this race. Turnout was through the roof in this district. Brough was clearly crushed by the allegations that had been made against him as he finished below everyone but Ed Sachs. Brough becomes another rare case of an incumbent not winning re-election.

We will now see a matchup between Scott Rhinehart (D) and Laurie Davies (R). Rhinehart is the same candidate that the Dems ran in 2018 and Davies is a Laguna Niguel Councilwoman.

This is the only OC Assembly seat that I am confident saying will stay with the Republicans with a certainty. I predict that Laurie Davies wins in November.

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