2020 Primary Analysis: 74th Assembly District

The 74th Assembly District falls entirely within the boundaries of Orange County. Cottie Petrie-Norris (D) is the incumbent in this race. Norris won in 2016 for the first time when she defeated incumbent Matt Harper.

This district shows the following party registration for the three largest political groups (the source is http://www.l2political.com):

Republican- 35.3%
Democrat- 34.0%
NPP- 25.6%

It appears that people smelled blood in the water in 2018 with multiple candidates running in the primary. Here are the result for the June 2018 race:

Cottie Petrie-Norris (D)- 28.3%
Ryan Ta (D)- 7.0%
Karina Onofre (D)- 12.1%
Katherine Daigle (R)- 11.0%
Matthew Harper (R)- 41.6%

We saw a total of 111,820 ballots cast in the primary. The primary numbers showed that Harper was in trouble. Only 52.6% of votes were cast for a Republican. Using my 5% rule, you would predict a 52.4% to 47.6% victory for Petrie-Norris. The actual winning total for Petrie-Norris was 52.7% to 47.3% in November.

Norris now has her first re-election attempt and she had two Republicans face her in the Primary. Here are the March 2020 results:

Cottie Petrie-Norris (D)- 52.3%
Diane Dixon (R)- 25.2%
Kelly Ernby (R)- 22.4%

145,366 ballots were cast in this race. Turnout was high and will grow even higher in November.

We will now see a matchup between Petrie-Norris (D) and Dixon (R). Petrie-Norris is the elected incumbent and Dixon is a Newport Beach Councilmember.

Dixon was the strongest candidate by far in terms of name ID, money raised, and campaign support. The result shows a very weak victory for Dixon who barely snuck through to November. This is not a good sign for her November prospects.

I predict that Cottie Petrie-Norris will win in November.

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