2020 Primary Analysis: 76th Assembly District

The 76th Assembly District falls entirely within the boundaries of San Diego County. Tasha Boerner Horvath (D) is the incumbent in this race. This seat was held by Republican Rocky Chavez up until 2018 when he chose to run for the 49th Congressional District.

This district shows the following party registration for the three largest political groups (the source is http://www.l2political.com):

Republican- 31.1%
Democrat- 36.3%
NPP- 26.3%

One would assume that this would be a seat that Republicans had a great chance at competing for; however, they ended up running six candidate in the primary. Those six candidates proved to be enough to get frozen out of November. Here are the result for the June 2018 race:

Elizabeth Warren (D)- 26.2%
Tasha Boerner Horvath (D)- 25.1%
Philip “Phil” Graham (R)- 21.1%
Jerome Stocks (R)- 4.7%
Thomas Krouse (R)- 7.9%
Brian Wimmer (R)- 0.8%
Amanda Rigby (R)- 5.4%
Maureen “Mo” Muir- 8.8%

We saw a total of 109,671 ballots cast in the primary. Even though Republicans got locked out of November, I do not think that they would have won in November had they advanced someone. Looking at the primary totals, 51.3% of ballots were cast for a Democrat and 48;7% for a Republican. My 5% rule would make this a probable pickup for the Democrats. The actual winning total for Tasha Boerner Horvath in November was 54.6% to 45.4%.

I will also note that Elizabeth Warren was likely boosted in June by her name being similar to US Senator Elizabeth Warren (yes, they are different people). This also could have potentially hurt Warren in the November election.

Republicans now have their first opportunity to gain the seat back and the primary numbers do not look great. Here are the March 2020 results:

Tasha Boerner Horvath (D)- 57.5%
Melanie Burkholder (R)- 42.5%

135,183 ballots were cast in this race. Democrats have clearly surged in this seat and look to have a huge advantage here now.

We will now see a rematch between Tasha Boerner Horvath (D) and Melanie Burkholder (R). Boerner Horvath is the elected incumbent and Burkholder has experience as a Secret Service Agent and is one of the strongest possible candidates that the Republicans could have run.

Burkholder is a tremendous challenger but I just don’t like the metrics here. I predict that Tasha Boerner Horvath will win in November.

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