2020 Primary Analysis: 77th Assembly District

The 77th Assembly District falls entirely within the boundaries of San Diego County. Brian Maienschein (D) is the incumbent in this race. Maienschein was a Republican up until after the 2018 election where he switched parties after narrowly winning re-election.

This district shows the following party registration for the three largest political groups (the source is http://www.l2political.com):

Republican- 30.0%
Democrat- 35.7%
NPP- 29.1%

Here are the result for the June 2018 race:

Sunday Gover (D)- 43.9%
Brian Maienschein (R)- 56.1%

We saw a total of 112,823 ballots cast in the primary. Maienschein narrowly won in November by a margin of 50.2% to 49.8%. This might play a small role in why Maienschein decided to change parties.

This is similar to the Assembly seat where Chad Mayes changed parties after winning; however, Maienschein decided to become a Dem instead of an NPP. Here are the March 2020 results:

Brian Maienschein (D)- 57.5%
June Yang Cutter (R)- 42.5%

151,382 ballots were cast in this race. Ironically, the percentage for March was the exact same as AD 76.

We will now see a rematch between Brian Maienschein (D) and June Yang Cutter (R). Maienschein is the elected incumbent and Cutter is an attorney and small business owner.

Cutter is another strong candidate but I think Mainschein will win over Dems and some moderate Republicans. I predict that Brian Maienschein will win an extremely close race in November.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.