Local

CD 25 Special Election Preview

We will commence with our local election analysis series as the week progresses. Before we get to those posts, I wanted to take a moment to update our readers on what to expect in the upcoming special election in the 25th Congressional District. The election is taking place two weeks from tomorrow.

You can go back and read our analysis of the March election by clicking here. As a reminder, this race is between Mike Garcia (R) and Christy Smith (D).

Considering that the vast majority of CD 25 is within the boundaries of Los Angeles County, we can likely expect a very low turnout in this election. My rationale for this statement is based on the fact that LA County will likely still be under some form of lockdown on election day.

Westminster is one of the few examples we have of an election taking place during the time of Covid-19. Results in Westminster showed a great success for the Republican backed candidates.

Here are turnout percentages for Westminster to provide comparison:

April 2020 Special Election- 38.0%
March 2020 Primary Election- 46.7%
November 2018 General Election- 65.7%

These numbers show me that we can see something in the neighborhood of a 10% decrease in votes from the March 2020 election. With more Republicans turning out in March than Democrats, this seat will likely flip.

I am now predicting that on May 12th Mike Garcia will be the winner. We can reevaluate what to expect in November once we see the results from this election; however, Garcia being the incumbent would be a definite advantage.

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